MAGA and the World’s Future

In the past few months, I have asked myself repeatedly, how did Trump win?  The question is even more pressing now that he has been inaugurated.  Trump’s misbehavior is legendary, yet, strangely, I find that a lot of my friends seem less upset about the prospects of a Trump presidency than they were 8 years ago.

The Trump election seems in line with an increasing global trend towards autocracy[i] in world governments during the past 20 years. Perhaps the world has become too complex and human numbers too large for democracy to work anymore?  Has the process been corrupted by money?  Are we comfortable with kings?

My gut feeling is that the rise of autocracy is driven by the subtle pressures that we all feel each day from a planet that is too full of people.  The world seems small when we hear of minerals that are in short supply and critical supplies are controlled by other countries:  Phosphorus (Morocco), Cobalt (Congo), Nickel (New Guinea), and rare earth metals (China).  Copper is now mined from low-grade deposits that are loaded with arsenic. Currently, the U.S. has ample petroleum, but the price of petroleum on world markets is stubbornly high due to terrorism and wars that disrupt the global supply chain.

Advocates of MAGA feel that DEI initiatives are misplaced—their kids can’t get into decent colleges and their jobs are threatened (or lost) by foreign competition and the appearance of preferential hiring at home.  Housing is short and basic goods are in high demand, driving up prices.  The borders seem porous to immigration; MAGA asks why we need all these people. Many followers of MAGA embrace assault weapons to counter a potential uprising of the masses.

Ecology holds some lessons for us.  Aggression in troops of chimpanzees is related to ensuring adequate food and desirable mates within the group.  Aggressive territorial behavior in birds is inversely related to the prevailing conditions of food supply.  Humans seem prone to follow such Darwinian behaviors; evolutionary biology doesn’t leave much room for altruism.

The Trump administration offers immediate carrots to assuage to the problems of a full planet—tariffs, lower taxes, less spending for the public good, and impermeable borders to those who don’t look like us.  Trump favors resource extraction over wilderness preservation. When it comes to grabbing a larger portion of Earth’s remaining bounty, Greenland has curb appeal.

Unfortunately, an immediate focus on a crowded planet overlooks long-term problems such as population growth, climate change, overfishing, rainforest destruction, and chemical pollution.  These problems are harder to see and likely to play out with indirect and diffuse impacts on our future.  Many will require global cooperation, which we should foster, not thwart.

On November 5, Trump offered immediate answers to the worried psychology of the electorate. Questions left unanswered are: How to cope with the remaining 7.5 billion people who share the planet with us; how to preserve Earth’s wonderous biodiversity; and how to survive society’s effluents that accumulate in the atmosphere and freshwaters.  Trump was elected on the promise to change our perception that our world is small, but the long-term problems facing Homo sapiens need a genuine sapient vision that we did not elect.

 

References

Diamond, Larry. 2024. How to end the democratic recession.  Foreign Affairs 103 (6): 126-140.

Kalof, L., T. Dietz, G. Guagnano and P.C. Stern. 2002.  Race, gender, and environmentalism: The atypical values and beliefs of white men.  Race, Gender and Class 8: 1-19.

Schlesinger, W.H. 2019.  Patriotism in a globalized world.  https://blogs.nicholas.duke.edu/citizenscientist/patriotism-in-a-globalized-world/

Silk, Joan B. 2014.  The evolutionary roots of lethal conflict.  Nature 513: 321-322.

Southwick, C.H. 1971.  The biology and psychology of crowding in man and animals.  Ohio Journal of Science 71: 65-72.

Smith, T.M. and H.H. Shugart. 1987. Territory size variation in the ovenbird—the role of habitat structure.  Ecology 68: 695-704.

 

[i] Autocratic leadership, also known as authoritarian leadership, is characterized by individual control over all decisions and little input from group members.  Plutocracy is when the governing individuals are rich.

5 thoughts on “MAGA and the World’s Future

  1. I am sorry to see that you have wondered off into the mire of politics. Your blog is most interesting when it sticks to its strength – science.
    Anyone can opine on politics, but it takes a critical thinker to speak and discuss science. I have enjoyed your blogs in the past and as a classmate of yours, I have enjoyed reading and commenting on them. But I decline to discuss politics except to say that we should avoid them on this otherwise enjoyable and stimulating blog.

    Chris

  2. With regard to politics I’ll take issue with Chris. As a scientist right in the middle of a MAG A state I submit the scientific establishment has failed the culture. An example of this is Lake Erie phosphate and nitrate. I do not believe there is a snow balls chance in hell of meeting the 40% reduction.. This has been viewed as a scientific rather than a political problem. I am of the opinion the algal blooms in concert with antibiotic resistance pose a considerable threat. The supporting science is great, but they cannot move because of local and state politics.
    BTW in Zoology 103 at Duke University 1n 1960, the effects of population was discussed. What they described is what we see today. They were right on the money.

  3. Bill,
    Your post makes totally valid points. My view is that MAGA supporters are unhappy with a stagnant economy (as they experience it), rising prices, incompetent government policies (such as out of control immigration – which it was for much of Biden’s administration, much of that not his fault), and gridlock, especially the Federal government – by both parties. This is spotlighted and enhanced by conservative media. For many, Trump offers the only promise of escape from the gridlock, even if it is a ‘hold your breath and your nose’ promise. The biggest gap of all between left and right is the assessment of the likelihood Trump will be a net benefit.

    Too many other topics, but let’s look at overpopulation. That is a problem, especially for Africa, but one that is coming rapidly under control, seemingly on its own. China, Japan, S. Korea and the rich West are facing sub-zero population growth that will bring its own problems. Humans can also invent around resource depletion, but only if we manage to handle climate change and avoid a nuclear holocaust.

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