A lot of corporations and academic institutions are reducing carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere with the hope that the world may avoid the worst of the ongoing rapid climate change.  High tech firms are investing in projects that are anticipated to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to balance or “offset” their emissions from daily operations.

Across the nation, 700 colleges and universities have pledged to join the low carbon movement.  A recent press release from Duke University, declares its victory in becoming “carbon neutral” in 2024.  Albeit a specific instance, it is worth kicking the tires of Duke’s claim to see if it is robust.  Can Duke serve as a model for other institutions?

Duke has made major investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources that are worthy of loud praise.  And a new 101-MgW solar energy project will come online in 2025 to help reduce carbon emissions from electric power. Emissions from the campus are estimated to have declined 31% since 2007.  A lot of college campuses could hope to do as well.

However, it is worth looking closely at any self-declaration of victory.  The details are not all attractive.  First, the 31% reduction is “excluding some portions of the medical center and leased spaces.”  What fraction on the square-footage on campus falls in this category?  In the Medical Center, what was included: the parking decks?  Anyone who has visited the campus recently will know that these buildings constitute a huge proportion of the University’s current infrastructure.

Looking carefully, we find that Duke is “producing no net greenhouse gas emissions” in 2024, but that was achieved by applying “high quality carbon offsets” that the University had amassed over the past decade.  These offsets are not defined.  Moreover, if its bank account of credits is depleted, the University will return as a net carbon emitter in 2025 and beyond.  In 2026, Duke will emit 41% of what it did in 2007.  Laudable progress, but it seems that the declaration of net zero emissions may not be sustainable beyond 2024.

Duke’s declaration of victory is a gift to the climate movement, but it is often best not to look a gift horse in the mouth.