Think of how valuable it would be to forecast disasters\u2014earthquakes, heart attacks, and stock market collapse.\u00a0 We seem to fail in good predictions of each of these, although it is certain that over the long-term some of us will experience them.<\/p>\n
Ecological field studies may have something to offer to disaster forecasts, which are often known euphemistically as \u201cphase-transitions\u201d or \u201cregime shifts.\u201d In several field experiments, ecologists have noted that before the collapse of an ecological system\u2014let\u2019s say the demise of fish in a lake\u2014there is often great variability in properties of the ecosystem\u2014for example in the species composition of the phytoplankton.<\/p>\n
Along the west coast of the U.S., an analysis of historical records shows that variability in climate has also preceded the collapse of large predatory fishes in the sea\u2014the species we most prefer as food. A system with impending collapse often shows a lack of resilience to small perturbations, as if it has become brittle and vulnerable to breakage.<\/p>\n
Precursor variability is also seen in seismic activity before earthquakes, perhaps a useful predictor of when a fault will break and the \u201cbig one\u201d will be upon us.\u00a0 And, sharply downward stock market prices are often preceded by exceptional volatility. For the latter, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) has calculated its VIX index\u2014also known as the \u201cfear gage,\u201d which started rising steeply\u2014to a high of 80.86 vs. its long-term average of 19.93\u2014before the market collapse of 2008.[1]<\/a> \u00a0In the human system, cardiac variations, known as fibrillation, are widely recognized as precursors to heart attack and stroke.<\/p>\n What is similar about these examples is that they all are derived from studies of complex systems, with many interacting and driving variables.\u00a0 As we study complex systems, ecologists may well have a message: focus on variation as a means for forecasting impending disaster.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n References<\/p>\n Black, B.A., W.J. Sydeman, D.C. Frank, D. Griffin, D.W. Stable, M. Garcia-Reyes, R.R. Rykaczewski, S.J. Bograd, and W.T. Peterson. 2014.\u00a0 Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.\u00a0 Science 3345: 1498-1502.<\/p>\n Carpenter, S.J., J.J. Cole and M.L. Pace. 2011.\u00a0 Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment.\u00a0 Science 332: 1079-1082.<\/p>\n Clark, J.S., S.R. Carpenter, M. Barber, S. Collins, A. Dobson, J.A. Foley, D.M Lodge, M. Pascual, R. Pielke, W. Pizer, C.\u00a0Pringle, W.V. Reid, K.A. Rose, O. Sala, W.H. Schlesinger, D. Wall and D. Wear.\u00a0 2001.\u00a0 Ecological forecasting:\u00a0 An emerging imperative.\u00a0 Science 293: 657-660.<\/p>\n Filgueiras-Rama, D., and J. Jalife. 2016.\u00a0 Structural and functional bases of cardiac fibrillation.\u00a0 Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Clinical Electrophysiology 2: 1-13.<\/p>\n Scheffer, M. 2009.\u00a0 Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. <\/em>\u00a0Princeton University Press.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n [1]<\/a> http:\/\/www.cboe.com\/micro\/vix\/historical.aspx<\/a>.\u00a0 In late August the VIX index stood slightly higher than 10.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ecologists have a message: focus on variation as a means for forecasting impending disaster.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":517,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[85,5],"tags":[235,234,238,237,236,239],"coauthors":[6],"class_list":["post-557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environmental-health","category-faculty","tag-disasters","tag-ecological-disasters","tag-forecasting","tag-phase-transitions","tag-regime-shifts","tag-transitions"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5KxUl-8Z","post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/517"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":561,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557\/revisions\/561"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nicholas.duke.edu\/citizenscientist\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}