What Do You Think?
by Bill Chameides | September 3rd, 2010
posted by Erica Rowell (Editor)
Three burning questions to ponder over the long Labor Day weekend.
Hurricanes
The United States has not seen a major hurricane make landfall since Ike struck in 2008. Hurricane Earl, now headed up the Atlantic Coast, has largely skipped by North Carolina.
Question #1: As we head into the Atlantic hurricane season’s most active period, will our luck hold? With government scientists predicting a “90 percent chance of an above-normal season,” will we continue to be spared from a damaging storm this season?
Global Temperatures
This year’s sizzling temperatures put 2010 on pace to be the warmest year on record. But we’ve got four more months to go.
Question #2: Will 2010 indeed prove to be the hottest year on record?
The Skeptical Environmentalist Changes His Stripes
Bjorn Lomborg, the outspoken Danish champion of climate skeptics and frequent guest of the Wall Street Journal‘s op-ed pages (about whom I’ve written here, here and here), has changed his tune. He now declares that climate change is “undoubtedly one of the chief concerns facing the world” and “a challenge that humanity must confront” through a carbon tax, no less.
Question #3: Will the Wall Street Journal ever allow him to write another op-ed?
Have a good weekend and TheGreenGrok will see you on Tuesday.
filed under: climate change, faculty, global warming, temperaturesand: Bjorn Lomborg, climate skeptics, Hurricane Earl, Hurricane Ike, hurricanes, temperature records, Wall Street Journal
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I think you’re afraid to publish my post? Sent in on the 15th of September, two days before Travis. But, Travis is correct. The charts at NOAA-NCDC “Temperature Rankings and Graphics” say clearly: “Rank (out of 131 years)”.
Ken, No one here is “afraid” to post comments. But please note: we will not post comments that simply repeat posters’ points that have already been made, sometimes time after time. Your posts about U.S. temperatures in the 1930s fall into this category and thus will not be posted in discussions about *global* warming. Sincerely, Erica Rowell Managing Editor, TheGreenGrok.com
Erica… Any objective assessment of what I wrote re. Question #2: Will 2010 indeed prove to be the hottest year on record? would show that my point was not to repeat about the 1930s being warmer than today but to show that putting emphasis on a single ‘sizzling’ 2010 should be as invalid as was the emphasis by others (e.g., Donald Trump) on the single 2010 ‘wintry weather’… as was criticized last February 16th. But, the fact that out of the last 115 years January 2010 and May 2010 are ranked as only the 62nd and 63rd warmest years and February 2010 is 87th (28th coldest!) makes it virtually impossible for 2010 to be the hottest YEAR on record… in the U.S. Thus, if 2010 becomes the hottest year on record globally it will not be because of the ‘sizzling’ U.S. 48 states.
Itâs the same argument about focusing on the U.S. when we are referring to global average.
When one begins with the words “The United States” and refers to the Atlantic hurricane season then segues to “this year’s sizzling temperatures” (which were indeed warm here) it seems fair to conclude that one is speaking about the U.S. not just the globe. Perhaps if you pointed to the places outside the U.S. that were sizzling, with data to back it up, one might not get confused. I think I was clear in my last sentence about where the U.S. 48 (at an average temperature of ~53°F) stands in a northern hemisphere that is ~6°F warmer.
Ken: 1. The discussion of hurricanes and hot temperatures were in two completely separate and unrelated sections. 2. As you well know, temperatures over the United States have little to do with the occurrence and intensity of hurricanes.
Earth reportedly has a climate record of 4.6 billion years. When you report that 2010 may be the warmest year on record, what you really mean is the warmest year since the mid-1800s (the NOAA graph says 1880). Inasmuch as many readers will think that 2010 will be the hottest year in forever, would it not be more appropriate to say that 2010 might be the warmest year since 1880?
Travis: Scientists use the term “on record” as a shorthand to mean the instrumental record; i.e., since we began taking measurements of temperature using thermometers. That began in the mid-19th century, so when we say the warmest on record, we mean since then.
3 of the 4 indicies (UAH, RSS, HadleyCRU) have 2010 behind 1998. I have links to the data handy if you disagree. Only GISS has 2010 warmer, and there is so many things wrong with the way GISS does their analysis I don’t have the time or interest in dicussing it all. To say 2010 is currntly the warmest year on record is to completely ignore 3 separate indicies that say otherwise…
Bill… Can you provide some guidance for question #2? Will you use anomalies or absolute temperatures? In addition, which base period will you use? There seem to be many to choose from. Some anomaly charts show 1998 as the warmest; some show 2005 as warmer than 1998. BTW, In the contiguous US which state will make a new record at year end 2010? None has done so since 2003.