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What Happens When the Lights Go Off
by -- January 3rd, 2017

I love an inadvertent experiment that shows how the world works.   For years, electric power companies denied having much impact on nitric oxide emissions to the atmosphere, pointing to emissions from soils, automobiles, and lightning as the real culprits. Nitric oxide is a precursor to the formation of ozone, which acts as a powerful oxidant in lung tissues, leading to various types of respiratory disease.

Luckily, wiser heads prevailed. Emissions of nitric oxide are now controlled, and the concentrations of nitric acid in rainfall are declining. But the cause-and-effect relationship between the two is still contested by some, who claim that this intrusion of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) increases the cost of electricity and kills economic growth.

I have looked to a couple of inadvertent experiments that help to clarify the issue, at least for me. The first was the electric power blackout in August 2003, which covered a wide portion of the eastern United States. During that period, coal-fired power plants were shut down, so we can interpret any changes in nitric oxide concentrations as an indication of their effects on air quality under normal operation. 

During the blackout, concentrations of SO2 and nitric oxide (NOx) were 34 and 20 percent lower, respectively, than under normal operating conditions, consistent with independent estimates that power-plants contributed about 25 percent of nitric oxide emissions in the U.S. at that time.  Concentrations of ozone were also lower.  

A similar result comes from an analysis of the effect of the 2008 recession on air quality, suggesting that ozone concentrations were one to two percent lower over the eastern U.S. during the recession period, when businesses were closed and families were saving energy to be frugal.

It should be of no great surprise that air pollution is related to economic activity and the combustion of fossil fuels. But it is often difficult to perform binary (on/off) regional tests of the relationship. These inadvertent experiments help to pinpoint the sectors most responsible for degradation of air quality over large regions. They also show the importance of capturing the smokestack emissions of the toxic gases emitted by power plants, as way ensuring good health for all of us.

 

References

Davidson, E.A., C.S. Potter, P. Schlesinger, and S.A. Klooster. 1998.  Model estimates of regional nitric oxide emissions from soils of the southeastern United States.  Ecological Applications 8: 748-759.

Hu, Y., T. Odman and A.G. Russell. 2006.  Re-examination of the 2003 North American electric blackout impacts on regional air quality.  Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2006GL027252

Kim, S.-W. and 9 others. 2006.  Satellite-observed U.S. power plant NOx emission reductions and their impact on air quality.  Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2006GL027749

Marufu, L., B. F. Taubman, B. Bloomer, C.A. Piety, B.G. Doddridge, J.W. Stehr, and R.R. Dickerson. 2004.  The 2003 North American electrical blackout:  An accidental experiment in atmospheric chemistry.  Geophysical Research Letters 31: doi: 10.1029.2004GL019771

Tong, D., L. Pan, W. Chen, L. Lamsal, P. Lee, Y. Tang, H. Kim, S. Kondragunta, and I. Stajner. 2016.  Impact of the 2008 global recession on air quality over the United States: implications for surface ozone levels from changes in NOx emissions.  Geophysical Research Letters doi: 10.1002/2016GL069885

4 Comments

  1. Dave Allen
    Jan 3, 2017

    There is faulty logic in your analysis even though I would like to believe in it. When the power plants shut down every other factory depending upon electricity shut down as well. Some of those factories were probably generating nitric oxide as well.

    • Bill Schlesinger
      Bill Schlesinger
      Jan 3, 2017

      Nitric oxide is only known to be generated by soil bacteria and various types of high temperature/pressure combustion that can combine nitrogen and oxygen–such as coal-fired power plants, automobiles and lightning bolts. A factory operating on electricity is not likely to emit any nitric oxide to the atmosphere.

  2. Mary M. Chadbourne
    Jan 3, 2017

    Bill, I would love to see this observation put into an action statement for the layperson. In our current environment of suspicion about what is factual, how can these data be made relevant and meaningful? We know the power of recent revelations about lead levels in drinking water. This surely is as urgent. The audience has to be all of us, but we have to have savvy guidance about where to push for reform. What are your thoughts about how best to reach a broad audience and ignite action on behalf of us all ?

    • Bill Schlesinger
      Bill Schlesinger
      Jan 3, 2017

      Well, I hope some of them read my blog and that all who do spread the word to their friends. It seems fairly clear to me that if you shut off coal-fired power plants and the levels of air pollution drop, there must be a strong link between the two.

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